Emerging from lockdown - modelling outputs and assumptions | University of Melbourne

University of Melbourne modelled several policy scenarios.

If we ease restrictions when the average number of cases over the previous fortnight is 25 (350 cases total) then it’s more likely than not that cases will get out of hand and restrictions will have to be reinstated to regain control and protect the health system.

Waiting until the average is 5 cases a fortnight – or 70 cases total - reduces the chance of increased restrictions before Christmas to just 3 in 100.